HKM’s UFC 93 predictions

UFC 93 is this weekend, anyone with eyeballs can see that the main event is a light-heavyweight battle between former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin and former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion Dan Henderson.  It’s a big fight for many reasons, but I don’t care to go into that and will instead simply give you my humble thoughts on who will win, which you can see after the jump.

Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares:

103 professional MMA fights is what you’ll see when you look at Jeremy Horn’s professional MMA record.  Impressive?  Of course….however, I firmly think that he’s fought too much and his body just doesn’t want to do it anymore.  He’s dropped 4 of his last 6 fights, 3 of those losses were via pretty quick submissions (thanks to Jorge Santiago, Nate Marquardt, and Dean Lister), and one via TKO (from Matt Lindland).  I think it’s fairly obvious that the UFC is throwing him into the wolves to simply get Palhares back on the “win-wagon” after he dropped a decision to Dan Henderson back at UFC 88.  Palhares is younger, stronger, and his grappling is WAAAAAY better than Horn’s.  I don’t think Jeremy is going to try and submit this guy, I predict he’ll do what he can to use his reach advantage to pick Rousimar apart, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do it for long.  Rousimar will clinch, power them to the ground, and force some sort of submission out of it.

Final Prediction: Rousimar Palhares via submission, round 1.

Marcus Davis vs. Chris Lytle:

Hmmm, when I think of these two, what do I see?  A slug-fest.  That’s all I think this will be in all truth, both guys are going for big wins here, both can strike, both have KO power, both are known to cut.  Chris Lytle’s coming off that decision victory over Paul Taylor at UFC 89, Davis is also coming off a win at that same event, a submission victory over the previously unbeaten Paul Kelly.  I personally don’t think either guy will ever get into a top contender spot for the welterweight division, Lytle’s already proven to be the gatekeeper for 170, and I could see Davis being the same.  Saying that, I think this will come down to who hits who more and harder, I think one of these guys will suffer a cut, and I think the doctor will call the fight…..

Final Prediction:  Marcus Davis via TKO (cut), round 2.

Alan Belcher vs. Denis Kang:

Belcher could get put on the map with a victory over Kang, who is widely considered to be a top middleweight throughout the world.  Both are strikers, both have solid ground games, obviously with Kang being a black belt, I’d say he’s got the edge when it comes to the ground.  Belcher’s no slouch though, and he showed that when he submitted Sean Salmon via a guillotine choke at UFC 71, I can only assume his submission skills have improved since then.  Belcher’s key to victory is to put pressure on Kang, get him to back up, use the clinch, throw knees into him. Belcher needs to wear him down (i.e. Anderson/Franklin 1).  Denis is making his UFC debut, he’s never fought in the “big show”, Belcher’s fought for the organization 7 times already, and jitters people might think Alan will have are dead wrong, he’s going to be calm, collected, and ready to get put on the map by destroying the American Top Team fighter.

Final Prediction: Alan Belcher via TKO, round 2.

Mark Coleman vs. Mauricio Rua:

I’m definitely looking forward for this fight.  I’m interested in seeing how Coleman looks and moves at 205, and whether or not Shogun is really back to his old form.  As much as the cage favors Coleman’s wrestling, I think he’s going to more inclined to stand and trade, he wants to prove a point, he wants to leave no doubt that the first fight they had was not a fluke by any means.  I think he’s going to come out hard and try to swing for the fences.  If he does initiate the clinch and try for a takedown, he’ll get it, Shogun’s takedown defense has never been good, and Coleman’s a great wrestler who knows what he’s doing.  I think the fight could go one of two ways:

• Coleman tries to trade with Shogun, ends up getting KTFO.
• Coleman takes Shogun down, holds him against the fence and GnP’s him for 15 minutes, winning a decision.

Either way, I could care less how it goes, I like both of these guys equally, I just want to see a good fight.  In the end, I’ve gotta give the edge to Shogun, he’s used to fighting at that weight class, and I think he’s going to come into this fight much healthier than he did when he fought Forrest Griffin at UFC 76.

Final Prediction: Mauricio Rua via TKO, round 2.

Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson:

I can’t wait for this fight, two outstanding MMA fighters finally getting matched up.  Both guys have extremely well-rounded skills, both are former champions, both have great records and  have fought some tough competition.  The winner of this is apparently going to be the coach for the US team on the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter: Team US vs. Team UK opposite Michael Bisping, who will obviously be the coach for the Brits.  If you break this down according to individual parts of the game, I think it might look like this:

• Striking: Franklin
• Kickboxing: Franklin
• Grappling: Even
• Wrestling: Henderson
• Power: Even
• Conditioning: Even
• Durability: Henderson

One could also add in the age factor, where Franklin is the younger, possibly more “fresh” of the two, but that’s not really something that should be taken seriously.  Also take into consideration the fact that Henderson is giving up a 2 inch height advantage, and I guarantee that Rich will have an extensive reach advantage over him.  I guess I see the fight playing out one of these ways:

• Dan stalking, Rich back-peddling, and effectively counterstriking en-route to a decision victory (see Bisping/Leben at UFC 89 for what I’m trying to visualize).
• Rich putting the pressure on Dan, throwing his unorthodox punches from weird angles, constantly peppering Henderson who’s trying to counterpunch but can’t get in close enough.  Rich eventually connects with a combo, maybe incorporates a kick in there, and stops Hendo.
• Dan getting in close, staying in the pocket while putting the pressure on Rich, and swinging hard and fast, hoping to connect, which he will, and knocking the hell outta Ace.
• Dan clinching, taking Rich down, and using effective ground and pound to either a late round stoppage or a decision win.
• Dan clinching, taking Rich down.  Rich using his underrated submission skills and throwing up an armbar, catching Henderson and making him tap.

In the end, I personally think that it’s going to go like the first way I mentioned, and Rich will ultimately walk away with the victory.

Final Prediction: Rich Franklin via unanimous decision.

Preliminary Quick Predictions:

Alexandre Barros vs. Martin Kampmann:

Kampmann via unanimous decision

Antonio Mendes vs. Eric Schafer:

Antonio Mendes via TKO, round 2.

Thomasz Drwal vs. Ivan Serati:

Ivan Serati via split decision.

Tom Egan vs. John Hathaway:

John Hathaway via TKO, round 2.

Denis Siver vs. Nate Mohr:

Nate Mohr via split decision