HKM’s Affliction: Day of Reckoning predictions

We’re two days away from seeing Fedor and Arlovski throw down for the WAMMA heavyweight title, a belt Fedor claimed by brutally owning former UFC heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia back in July of 2008 at Affliction: Banned.  This card is stacked with some great talent, to include former UFC heavyweight champion and open-weight King of Pancrase Josh Barnett, IFL light heavyweight champion Vladimir Matyushenko, former UFC title challenger and current Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Renato “Babalu” Sobral, top ranked middleweight Matt Lindland, former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueria…brother of former UFC interim heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigio Nogueria.

After the jump you’ll find  my personal predictions for the event…

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski:

No surprise that Fedor’s coming in the favorite to this bout, I think that if you put him into a ring with the infected from “28 Days Later”, he still wouldn’t be the underdog.  I don’t think that there is any legit argument out there in which a person could honestly say that he’s not the greatest heavyweight MMA fighter of all time.  Saying that, I’m also saying this….he’s not going to lose to Arlovski.  Having Freddie Roach as your boxing coach is a GREAT idea……IF you’re in a boxing match.  This isn’t boxing, and although I’m confident that Arlovski has been training on his takedown defense/submission defense, I think Roach has given him a false hope in believing that Fedor will simply play Andrei’s game and stand with him, fighting how a boxer would fight.

I imagine Arlovski will come ready to engage, and I think that he’s going to immediately put the pressure on Fedor, who in turn isn’t going to back down, but he’s going to engage as well.  What I see are Fedor’s mitts coming from weird angles as Andrei tries to counter, Andrei getting caught, Andrei backing up, and the rest is all Fedor.  I think Andrei is a great fighter who can beat almost anyone, with this exception.  I think Fedor’s going to come out and blast him like he did to Tim Sylvia and leave the Arlovski fanboy’s crying in front of their television…

Final Prediction:  Fedor via TKO, round 1.

Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel:

This is an interesting matchup for a few reasons:

• Josh Barnett has almost nothing to gain and everything to lose with this fight, which makes me believe he’ll come very prepared not to lose.
• Gilbert Yvel has been on a tear recently, and has shown vasty improved submission skills, making him more well rounded and much more dangerous.
• Winner of this just might face the winner of Fedor/Arlovski for the WAMMA heavyweight title.

Now, I’m a big Josh Barnett fan…he’s one of the few fighters out there that is perefectly comfortable wherever the fight ends up, he’s no “one-trick pony”, and he’s fought the best of the best for most of his entire career.  He’s got all the tools to be the best heavyweight in the world, and I personally think that he’s the only fighter who can now give Fedor a run for his money….I think Josh could beat Fedor.  In order to see that though, he’s got to get past a fighter who’s notorious for fighting dirty and carrying a bad attitude everywhere he goes.  make no mistake about it, Yvel is going to be looking for a fast and brutal knockout, and don’t think for one second that he couldn’t do it.  His standup is excellent, and I believe that he’ll be in good enough shape to create one brutal fight.  In the end, I think Josh’s experience with top competition is going to come out on top, but I think he’s going to be a mess by the end of the fight…

Final Prediction: Josh Barnett via submission, round 3.

Vitor Belfort vs. Matt Lindland:

I really wish that this would have been for the WAMMA middleweight title….are these two the best middleweight fighters in the world?  Nope….but they’re two extremely well-known fighters fighting in the same organization, both have huge followings and both have great skillsets, so why not for the belt?  Who else is honestly going to rep the WAMMA title right now?  Regardless though, I’m pumped for this fight.  Lindland, well I consider him the #2 middleweight in the world, in my eyes he’s done enough in his career to warrant that rank.  Vitor seems to have a “2nd wind” in him after a few disappointing fights in the UFC, followed by a steroid suspension and a drop to a new weight class.  He looked good in his with Terry Martin at Affliction: Banned, and I think that we’re going to see him look even better on Saturday.  Lindland’s going to be willing to trade until he eats a shot, and then he’ll work his wrestling/dirty boxing to get the takedown and ground and pound his way to a decision.  I think that if Vitor comes well conditioned, he’ll be able to prevent Lindland from doing anything damaging on the ground and force his way back up to the feet, where he’ll have the obvious advantage.  In the end, I’m going to give it to Belfort, I think Lindland might be a little bit worn and torn and I don’t think he’ll be able to handle the onslaught that the “Old Vitor” is capable of bringing…

Final Prediction: Vitor Belfort via TKO, round 2.

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou:

Let it be known, I will never pick Babalu to win anything….EVER.  If I’m wrong and he does win, so be it, but he’s proven to me to be either somewhat of a hit or a complete motherf*^%ing miss.  Take for instance his rematch with Chuck Liddell at UFC 62.  You’d think that that watching Chuck’s previous fights, it might not be the best to rush him throwing windmill punches…Whoops! That’s what Babalu did and you can see what that got him by clicking here.  Now, his follow-up fight after his bout with Chuck was against Jason Lambert, a fight he could have easily won…..but he didn’t, because he decided to throw jogging knees with his hands compeltely at his side…which got him this.  I mean, there’s stupid….and then there’s Babalu.

Now, I’m not saying Sokoudjou is any better, he’s proven to be extremely lacking in the conditioning department as well as possessing a questionable chin…as both Lyoto Machida and Luiz Cane were able to figure out when they beat his ass while he fought for the UFC.  I don’t think he’s all that great, but he’s very young and still has many years ahead of him.  I think Babalu’s going to come out and fight like an idiot, trying to show off his boxing skills, and in turn is going to get KTFO by Rameau.  I’ll laugh if it happens like that…

Final Predicton:  Sokoudjou via ownage, round 1.

Vladamir Matyushenko vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira:

A rematch that probably nobody knows about unless you’ve followed either guy (Vlad won the fight via decision).  Lil Nog and Vlady are great fighters who have flown under the radar for years.  Vlady is probably best known for appearing on Andrei Arlovski’s UFC highlight reel, the two fought back at UFC 44 and Arlovski knocked him out rather quickly.  Regardless of that loss, it’s been the only time he’s been stopped and so far it’s been the last loss he’s had.  That means ladies and gents…that he’s gone undefeated since 2003 and has even grabbed the IFL light heavyweight title in between….he’s a legit badass and if you don’t know anything about him, you should look into it.  He’s one of my favorite fighters, he has great wrestling, a lot of power, and what I think are underrated striking skills.

Lil Nog, is the little brother (no shit!) of former UFC interim heavyweight champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria.  He’s a PRIDE veteran, and like Vlady, has only lost 3 times in his career, as well as only being stopped once (via a huge upset raping KO thanks to Sokoudjou at PRIDE 33).  Like his brother, he posseses both great boxing as well as awesome grappling skills.

I really think that this bout could be the best fight on the entire card.  Both want to finally get the recognition that they truly deserve and be placed amongst the top 205lbers in the world.  I think that both are still highly capable of making an impact in whatever organization they fight for, and I’m really excited to see them fight again.

Final Prediction: Vladamir Matyushenko via unanimous decision

Quick Predictions:

Jay Hieron vs. Jason High: Jay Hieron via TKO, round 2

Paul Buentello vs. Kiril Sidelnikov: Kiril Sidelnikov via KO, round 3.

L.C. Davis vs. Bao Quach: Bao Quach via unanimous decision

Antonio Duarte vs. Albert Rios: Antonio Duarte via submission, round 2.

Patrick Speight vs. Brett Cooper: Brett Cooper via KO, round 2.