HKM’s UFC 94 Predictions.

I would have had my predictions up earlier, but my school has consumed most of my life for the past week and I wasn’t able to, so I apologize for anyone who really cares about these predictions.  UFC 94 is TOMORROW, we’re mere hours away from seeing the most anticipated rematch in MMA since Chuck Liddell/Tito Ortiz II, and that’s between current UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, and current UFC lightweight champion BJ Penn.  If you’re a fan of mixed martial arts, you’re putting everything else on hold for tomorrow to make room for this event. The main event is one of those “super fights” that comes along every once in a great while, featuring two of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world.  I really can’t believe that this fight is finally going to happen!

After the jump, you’ll get the usual….some in-depth thoughts/predictions as well as some quick picks.  Once again, please don’t use these when and if you place an actual bet with monetary value, I’m not responsible for you dropping Johnny’s college fund down the pisser.

Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn (for the UFC welterweight title):

Looking on paper one might think the following:

• Striking: BJ
• Grappling: BJ
• Conditioning: GSP
• Wrestling: GSP
• Durability: BJ
• Heart: Even?

Listing the above, one might think that the fight is either going to end one of the following ways:

• BJ connects and KO’s Georges early in the first round with a punch/series of punches.
• Georges out-wrestles BJ and either stops him with elbows/ground and pound in the later rounds, or wins a decision.

I don’t see the fight going any other way, I don’t think Georges has the striking skills to knock BJ out.  BJ has shown to possess an iron chin, he just eats punches and doesn’t show any sign of injury taken from them.  I don’t think Georges has the submission skills (although he is a legit BJJ black belt) to submit BJ, and when I say “submit”, I’m referring to an actual submission move (rear naked choke, triangle, gogo), not a verbal submission due to strikes (which St. Pierre could do).  I think this fight will be determined on the basis of how well BJ comes in shape.  If he’s not prepared to go five rounds, he’s going to be in trouble given he can’t stop Georges in the early portion of the fight.  What Georges needs to do the minute the ref tells them to fight, is to come out and start pushing the pace.  Georges needs to take BJ out of his element (striking), and put him onto his back, then reign hell with ground and pound.  He needs to wear BJ out early and make him fight his pace…which is something I don’t think BJ will be able to do.

However, if Georges comes out and let’s Penn get into his grove, it’s going to be a damaging first few rounds for the Canadian, who will definitely get the hell beat out of him if he simply acts as a moving punching bag.  BJ’s hands are lethal, he’s got a lot of power and Georges has been stopped via strikes before.  If St. Pierre wants to win this fight, his superior wrestling and conditioning are his savior….

Final Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, round 4.

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva:

Both are top 205lb fighters in the UFC, both are undefeated at 13-0, both are very close to a title shot (Machida will probably get a title shot if he wins this, Thiago might need another win to get his).  I think the general MMA fan-base is riding the Machida train at the current moment.  He’s proved to be one of the most frustrating fighters in the world, he waits for his opponents to put the pressure on him and then he attacks and moves away.  He’s very defensive, yet incredibly offensive at the same time.  I personally think that this is a perfect fight for him, Thiago isn’t going to pussy-foot around the cage and wait for Machida to come to him, he’s going to come out how he normally does and get in his opponents face.  Thiago’s a very scary dude, he’s definitely the most aggressive fighter (in my eyes) in the UFC light heavyweight division, and he’s going to want to make a big statement with this bout.

I don’t think Thiago is as durable as people make him out to be.  Antonio Mendes hurt Thiago early with a head kick in their UFC 84 fight, and both James Irvin and Tomasz Drwal connected with some great shots that seemed to put him off-balance and possibly a little hurt.  I think this fight is Machida’s to lose to be honest, he’s proven very hard to take down, and once down he’s able to get right back up.  I think if Silva is going to win this bout, he needs to go full-force early, pressure Machida, get him down, mount him and then ground and pound his face until the ref stops him…anything else and I think Machida will walk away the winner.

Final Prediction: Lyoto Machida via TKO, round 2.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones:

Stephan’s coming off a long-layoff due to a shitty knee injury he sustained while training for Matt Hamill last year.  Jon Jones burst onto the UFC scene with an upset victory over the highly regarded Andre Gusmao at UFC 87.  Jones put on one helluva fight in his UFC debut, he was throwing some pretty exciting moves, and from what I remember he did it on only a few days notice.  Jones is also a very accomplished wrestler, and if you saw the Bonnar/Rashad fight a few years ago, you know that that fight was determined due to Rashad’s wrestling ability.  I personally think that Bonnar might have been out of the loop for too long, and I think we’re going to see a fight reminiscent of his bout with Rashad, which is sad because I’m a very big fan of Stephan and I’d like nothing more than to see him come out with a win.

Final Prediction: Jon Jones via unanimous decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida:

Two rising lightweights who both have some great skills, both are coming off wins over veteran fighters (Josh Neer and Mac Danzig), both would prosper a lot from a victory in this fight.  Clay Guida has shown that he can hang with the best fighters in the world, but until the victory over Danzig, he showed that he couldn’t beat them.  Guida recently said that the loss to Roger Huerta was “a blessing is disguise”, and I firmly beleive that he’s a better fighter than he was before he got submitted by “El Matador”.  Saying that, I think that if Guida wants to win he needs to do the following:

• Take Nate down
• Make Nate stand back up
• Take Nate down
• Make Nate stand back up
• Repeat for three rounds

Clay’s got the cardio and wrestling to do that, I really think that’s his only way to win the fight.  If he gets Nate down and tries to impose some ground and pound, he’ll get submitted….it’s that simple.  Nate’s a wizard off his back, and he’s got those long ass limbs which make triangle chokes the more easier.

Final Prediction: Nate Diaz vs. submission, round 3.

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim:

This is a difficult fight to pick.  Karo’s been out of the loop due to injuries/panic attacks, hasn’t fought since a TKO loss to Thiago Alves at UFN 13 back in April of 2008, while Kim looked like shit and barely squeaked out a victory over Matt Brown at UFC 88 back in September.  I don’t have enough faith in either guy to give a solid prediction, but showing from previous track records, I’d like to think Karo is going to be the favorite due to his record and previous opponents.  I know though, if Karo shows up looking like garbage, “Stun Gun” is going to get the best of him.

Final Prediction: Karo Parisyan via unanimous decision.

Quick Picks:

Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono: Fitch via unanimous decision

Thiago Tavares vs. Manny Gamburyan: Thiago via unanimous decision

Jon Howard vs. Chris Wilson: Wilson via TKO, round 2.

Jake O’ Brien vs. Christian Wellisch: Jake via TKO, round 2.

Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer: Matt Arroyo via unanimous decision